Quantum technology · Situation briefing
Another way of processing information, across four domains at very different stages of maturity. Some of it already works; much is still research. This briefing separates one from the other.
Like digital technologies (software, AI), its reach is cross-cutting: science, industry and society. Unlike them, it is still early — which means the point of entry can still be chosen.
Unlike AI, the focus isn’t on automating or speeding up traditional processes, but on providing a new paradigm for processing information.
Why now
August 2024
NIST published the first post-quantum cryptography standards (ML-KEM, ML-DSA, SLH-DSA). They need no quantum hardware: they run on today’s computers. The urgency has a name — “harvest now, decrypt later”: data stolen encrypted today becomes readable the day the machine exists. That is why migration starts before the computer does.
December 2024
Google showed in Nature that a logical qubit’s error rate falls as the code grows — the theoretical requirement, open for some thirty years, for scaling up. Quantinuum and Microsoft scaled logical qubits through 2024-2025. It is an engineering milestone, not a commercial advantage: no quantum machine beats classical ones on a business problem today.
2025
IBM announced a fault-tolerant machine (200 logical qubits) for 2029; the promise is IBM’s, not ours. The 26 experts surveyed by the Global Risk Institute put the probability of a cryptographically relevant machine within ten years at 28-49% — the highest reading in the survey’s seven years.
The four domains
A different kind of machine — for problems today’s computing can’t reach.
It manipulates qubits: they can sit in superposition (0 and 1 at once) and become entangled, showing correlations with no classical counterpart. For certain problems —not all— quantum algorithms offer exponential advantages, on paper. Today’s machines are still noisy: the scientific milestones are real; the commercial advantage is not here yet.
The most commercially proven quantum devices.
It exploits the extreme sensitivity of quantum systems to measure time, gravity and magnetic fields at the limits physics allows. Atomic clocks have underpinned GPS for decades; commercial gravimeters operate in geophysics and magnetometers in hospitals and clinical trials.
Links where an intruder leaves a detectable physical trace.
Protocols that use measurement and entanglement to distribute keys: intercepting disturbs the system, and it shows. Real networks are operating — from China to Recife. One nuance: western agencies (NSA, NCSC, BSI) recommend solving post-quantum migration first, which is classical software.
Reconstructing natural systems no supercomputer can reach.
Special-purpose quantum computers for studying molecules and materials — chemistry’s native language. By technical consensus, it is quantum computing’s nearest useful application: catalysts, drugs, new materials. Today: research.
The maturity landscape
QutSur’s reading, July 2026. Every row carries its source; the criterion is deliberately conservative.
Can be bought, deployed and audited.
NIST standards since 2024; more than half of human web traffic passing through Cloudflare already uses it (late 2025). The one unavoidable action today for any organization holding long-lived data.
NIST · CloudflareThe foundation of GPS. Chip-scale versions have been on sale since 2011.
NISTTurnkey commercial equipment — one has monitored Mount Etna since 2020. SQUID sensors guided mineral discoveries worth over US$10B.
Exail · CSIROIn phone chips since 2020. Honest caveat: its edge over a good classical generator is debated for many uses.
Samsung · QuantinuumReal and operating; the economic verdict is still out.
Real networks: 2,000 km in China, a commercial metropolitan network in London, 7 km under Recife on its way to 40. Trusted nodes see the keys — which is why the NSA and BSI recommend PQC first.
Nature · NCSC/BSIDefense trials: 144 hours aboard an Australian Navy vessel; a US$24.4M DARPA contract. Company-reported figures; no universal products yet.
Q-CTRL · DARPAGenuine pilots at banks. On public benchmarks, classical solvers still win every instance.
Fraunhofer 2025Real science; years of engineering ahead.
The threshold was demonstrated (Willow, 2024); IBM promises 200 logical qubits by 2029. Useful chemistry calls for on the order of 1,400.
Nature · IBM · PNASThe nearest useful application by consensus — and still no machine outperforms classical methods in chemistry.
Nature 607Three published obstacles at once: barren plateaus, classical simulability, data loading. One to watch, not to buy.
Nat. Comms · Nat. Phys.Claims best heard with the manual open.
Experts put it at 28-49% probability within ten years. The real urgency is “harvest now” — and it is solved with classical software, today.
GRI 2025Quadratic speedups don’t overcome the hardware overhead; several celebrated cases were classical, “quantum-inspired” methods.
CACM 2023The listed quantum pure-plays bill ~US$160M a year combined, against projections of US$28-72B by 2035. The capital is real; the revenue is not yet.
SEC · McKinseyThe view from the South
The timelines are written by NIST, the roadmaps by IBM, the market narratives by McKinsey. Announced public programs worldwide exceed US$40B (OECD, Dec. 2025) — and Latin America is nearly invisible on the global trackers. Reading this landscape with independent judgment is the first capability a region needs.
And the region has started to move: Brazil’s science ministry (MCTI) announced a plan of up to R$5B through 2034, Chile presented its 2025-2035 national strategy framed around sovereignty, Colombia launched its first national AI-and-quantum call with a strategic-minerals line. The full argument — problems of its own, a scientific base, an open window — is step 3 of this path.
Sector priorities
Maturity is uneven: every sector has its own “now”, “soon” and “later”. The detail, application by application, is in step 2.
Inventory your cryptography and plan the post-quantum migration: Pix moved on the order of US$5 trillion in 2024 over encryption that will need replacing. Optimization pilots, always with a classical benchmark alongside.
See applications →Sensing already pays: magnetic exploration has a US$10B discovery record, and Chile and Peru produce about 40% of the world’s copper.
See applications →Post-quantum migration already has official dates in the US, UK and EU — a mandate in the US case. In the region, Uruguay has already included it in its 2024-2030 cybersecurity strategy; dated timelines, not yet.
See applications →Sensing for water, soil and climate; simulation for fertilizers and methane. Research — on problems that are ours.
See applications →Sensing-based diagnostics is already in hospitals; drug design is the medium-term bet.
See applications →How QutSur helps
QutSur exists so that organizations in the region read this landscape with independent judgment — and act in time, without buying the hype. Three lines of work:
Briefings and monitoring with judgment: which milestone matters for your portfolio of problems, and what is noise. From executive briefing to readiness assessment.
Programs for technical teams and for decision-makers — from the university classroom to the boardroom. Our founder directs the UAI diploma program in AI and quantum computing.
Connections across academia, industry, government and international partners. We start at home: an open radar of the ecosystem — 100+ entities in 18 countries, with open data.
Tell us what decision you are weighing or what problem you have at hand. We read and reply personally — no mailing lists, no sales follow-up.
Start the conversation →Prefer to explore first? The ecosystem map →
Sources for this briefing: NIST (Aug 2024) · Google / Nature 638 (Dec 2024) · McKinsey Quantum Technology Monitor 2025/2026 · Global Risk Institute, Quantum Threat Timeline 2025 · NSA CNSA 2.0 / NCSC / BSI-ANSSI · Cloudflare (2025) · SEC filings FY2025 (IonQ, D-Wave, Rigetti) · CSIRO · DARPA · OECD (Dec 2025) · MCTI (Brazil) · Ministry of Science (Chile) · MinCiencias (Colombia). Cited projections belong to their publishers. Interpretation and any errors: QutSur. Updated: July 2026.
